Smoking into your grave: 7.36 million deaths caused by
tobacco in 2023, Global Burden of Disease Study shows
By Hope Mafaranga
New research presented at the World Conference on
Tobacco Control, hosted by the International Union Against Tuberculosis and
Lung Disease (the Union) with support from Bloomberg Philanthropies and the
World Health Organization (WHO), reveals that despite decades of progress,
tobacco remains a leading risk factor for death globally – reinforcing the
urgency of sustained, evidence-based tobacco control as a cornerstone of global
health and development.
Researchers from the Institute for Health Metrics and
Evaluation at the University of Washington shared new data from the Global
Burden of Disease Study, revealing the staggering and persistent toll of
tobacco exposure on global health. Researchers found that tobacco use was
responsible for 7.36 million deaths and over 200 million disability-adjusted
life-years (DALYs) worldwide in 2023.
The study also highlighted stark disparities globally:
while countries like the United Kingdom saw a 45% decline in
tobacco-attributable deaths since 1990, others, such as Egypt, experienced a
dramatic rise, showing that decades of control efforts, tobacco remains the
leading risk factor for death among men globally and ranks seventh among women.
“Tobacco exposure is one of the most significant risk
factors identified in the Global Burden of Disease Study 2023, contributing to
approximately 1 in 8 deaths worldwide,” said Brooks Morgan, researcher at the
Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation.
“While some countries are seeing encouraging declines
in tobacco-related deaths, others are heading in the opposite direction. These
trends highlight the urgent need for accelerated implementation and stronger
enforcement of strategies proven to reduce tobacco use, such as the MPOWER
measures recommended by the WHO.”
The findings underscore the urgent need for
intensified global action and policy implementation to curb tobacco’s deadly
impact and align with the WHO Framework Convention on Tobacco Control.
Additionally, researchers from China presented
promising results from an AI-driven personalised mobile health (mHealth)
intervention, designed to support smoking cessation. Developed using machine
learning, the system delivers tailored messages and interactive tools – such as
games and peer insights – based on each user’s quitting stage and preferences.
In a randomised controlled trial involving 272
smokers, the intervention group achieved a quit rate more than double that of
the control group (17.6% vs. 7.4%). Participants also reported a significant
drop in daily cigarette consumption and high satisfaction with the programme.
“In China, over 50 million smokers want to quit, yet
most lack access to effective cessation services. Our study shows the
significant potential of personalized ‘mHealth’ interventions to transform
smoking cessation efforts.
By combining machine learning with behavior change
theory, we created an intervention that can deliver cessation messages adapted
to each user’s stage of quitting, preferences and needs in real time.
The system also has some interactive features, like
decision-balancing games, which help boost motivation and engagement,” said
Prof. Pinpin Zheng, professor and director of the Department of Preventive
Medicine and Health Education in the School of Public Health, Fudan University.
“More than 80% of participants reported being
satisfied with the system. These findings highlight how theory-based,
technology-driven solutions can bridge the gap in cessation services and
provide cost-effective, wide-reaching strategies to empower smokers to quit.”
The AI-driven, user-centric approach was shown to
offer a scalable, evidence-based model for expanding cessation support in China
and globally, addressing a critical gap in access to support for smokers in
China who want to quit – of which there are over 50 million.
Researchers from the German Cancer Research Center
presented new evidence on the cross-border marketing of Heated Tobacco Products
(HTPs) on social media, revealing stark contrasts shaped by national regulatory
frameworks.
Using media monitoring tools, the study analysed
public posts across five platforms in the UK, Ireland, and Germany. While no
promotional content was found in Ireland - where HTPs are regulated as tobacco
products - nearly half of the posts in the UK and Germany promoted HTPs,
primarily through commercial accounts.
The findings showed that Germany had a notably higher
proportion of youth- and female-targeted content, and that marketing strategies
varied by country, from price promotions in the UK to product design features
in Germany.
The research highlights the urgent need for harmonised
regulation, suggesting that classifying HTPs as conventional tobacco products,
as is done in Ireland, could significantly reduce their online promotion and
appeal.
“Our study reveals notable differences in the social
media promotion of heated tobacco products (HTPs) - differences shaped by both
regulatory frameworks and market presence. In Ireland, no promotional content
was identified on social media, but commercial promotion of HTPs on social
media was widespread in the UK and Germany - including content that may appeal
to youth and women,” said Zauraiz Lone, Doctoral Researcher at the German
Cancer Research Centre (DKFZ) and Heidelberg University.
“Promotional activity focusing on heating devices
without explicitly showing tobacco sticks reveals exploitation of policy
fragmentation and regulatory ambiguities. These findings highlight the
importance of addressing enforcement gaps and revisiting how product categories
are defined and regulated. Strengthening digital marketing regulation and
closing definitional loopholes are essential for reducing exposure, limiting
uptake among younger populations, and supporting public health goals.”
Academics from the Institute of Clinical and Health
Effectiveness (IECS) in Argentina also unveiled new modelling data quantifying
the devastating toll of tobacco use in five low- and middle-income countries:
Bolivia, Honduras, Nigeria, Paraguay, and Uruguay.
They found that in 2023 alone, tobacco was responsible
for 41,000 deaths, 360,000 disease events, and over 1.3 million years of
healthy life lost, costing these countries a combined US$4.3 billion in medical
expenses, lost productivity, and informal caregiving.
Using a microsimulation model, the study projected
that full implementation of four key tobacco control strategies - tax
increases, plain packaging, advertising bans, and smoke-free environments -
could avert up to 234,000 deaths and save as much as US$2 billion over the next
decade.
“Our research, led by IECS in Argentina, is the result
of a strong collaborative effort with partners from Bolivia, Honduras, Nigeria,
Paraguay, and Uruguay—countries that are deeply committed to tackling the
tobacco epidemic.” Said Natalia Espinola, Coordinator of Health Economics at
IECS.
“In 2023 alone, smoking caused over 41,000 deaths and
generated nearly 4.3 billion dollars in direct and indirect costs—equivalent to
around 1% of the countries' combined GDP. The message is clear: countries must
fully implement proven tobacco control policies. Our findings confirm that
raising tobacco taxes, enforcing smoke-free spaces, banning advertising, and
mandating plain packaging are not only effective—they save lives and bring
major economic benefits.”
The findings demonstrate the urgent need for
data-driven policy action to reduce the health and economic burden of tobacco
in LMICs and accelerate progress toward global development goals.
Cassandra Kelly-Cirino, Executive Director of the
Union, said: “The research showcased today at the World Conference on Tobacco
Control is a powerful reminder that tobacco remains one of the most devastating
public health threats of our time – there is no such thing as a healthy tobacco
product, and reduced risk all too often just means increased profit for
industry. We must take a zero-tolerance approach.
“The evidence presented at this conference
demonstrates that when we invest in data-driven, locally tailored
interventions, we save lives. The Union is very proud to support and amplify
this work which strengthens the global case for urgent, sustained tobacco
control.”